565
FXUS66 KSGX 152049
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
149 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY. COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND WINDIER WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
CURRENTLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS
SCATTERED OUT COMPLETELY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM LA JOLLA DOWN TO POINT
LOMA WHICH REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOST PLACES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO REGATHER AND FILL BACK IN FOR MOST OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS EVENING, WITH BASES REMAINING AROUND THE
SAME HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1000-1500 FT MSL, AND THEN MAY DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WHILE LOWERING AND THICKENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH DRIZZLE LATER ON
THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE WEST FACING
SLOPES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS TO PUT
INTO THE GRIDS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY LATE
TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO PICK UP AND LEAD TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AS MORE OF AN "INSIDE
SLIDER" TRANSITION, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LIMITED AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID THERE COULD BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN AS WELL BY LATER IN THE EVENING ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE MORNING OF SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOW DESERTS WITHIN
GAP FLOW AREAS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ALIKE STILL SHOW A RIDGE RETURNING AND BUILDING BACK IN NEXT WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND LEADING TO QUITE A REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, AND BACK
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND DISPERSE BY THIS TIME.
AVIATION
152000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY AREAS OF FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-
2500 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
1000-1500 FT MSL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 03Z, WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE BY 08Z FRI. THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REACHING KONT BY 12Z FRI. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM THE VALLEYS 16-18Z FRI, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE COAST FRI AM.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME
CUMULUS BASED AROUND 8000-10000 FEET MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS 18-01Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH WIND-
DRIVEN WAVES 6 TO 8 FEET FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS 20 KT
OR LESS AND WIND-DRIVEN WAVES UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED FOR INNER
COASTAL WATERS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK
LIKELY IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF WILL IMPACT BEACHES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURF
HEIGHT OF 4-6 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG WEST-
FACING BEACHES. INCREASED SURF WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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