590
FXUS66 KSGX 161624
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
924 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE
COASTAL BASIN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. THERE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 9 AM WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS HAD REACHED WELL
INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE, BUT HAD NOT FULLY FILLED IN THE COASTAL
BASIN. A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE REPORTED THIS MORNING. A CLOSED
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING, BUT AN
OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL REMAIN AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CROSS SECTIONS OF OUR LOCAL
WRF ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ON MOUNTAIN SLOPES DURING THAT TIME. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CHANCES OF RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 0.10" AT 5 PERCENT OR LESS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
BASIN COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IT'S UNLIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXCEED 0.20" FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND 0.40" FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL ARE IN THE SAN DIEGO
COAST, VALLEYS, AND MOUNTAINS.
STRONGER, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DESERT
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 70 MPH IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO
55 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST, THE
90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE, AND 104 TO 109 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, NBM CHANCES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
WARMER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE TO EXCEED 100 ARE AROUND 35 TO
45 PERCENT WITH NBM CHANCES FOR THE WARMER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
DESERTS TO EXCEED 110 ON THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 PERCENT. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS NOT EXTENDING INLAND PAST THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
161615Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 1200-1500 FT MSL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN EDGE AT THIS HOUR. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH 18Z, BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. LOCAL VIS REDUCED TO 3-5SM ON HIGHER
COASTAL TERRAIN AND INLAND VALLEYS UNTIL SCATTERING. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASES 1500-2000 FEET MSL WILL PUSH ASHORE AND INLAND
AFTER 00Z, FILLING THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN TO THE FOOTHILLS BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER
22Z, POCKETS OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO ADJACENT DESERTS.
THIS COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN THE LEE OF
MOUNTAINS SUCH AS VCNTY KPSP.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY COULD LEAD
TO CHOPPY SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS
NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF WILL IMPACT BEACHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTED SURF
OF 4-6 FEET WOULD PRODUCE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR APPLE
AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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