716
FXUS66 KSGX 190950
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
250 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING LOCALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AROUND AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND FOR THE DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS WARMEST FOR THE MODEL RUNS AROUND
FRIDAY OF LAST WEEK AND HAS SINCE COOLED A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING
ON LOCATION. WITH THE WARMING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 102 TO 106 FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP, BUT WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL LAND AREAS. THERE WILL BE WEAK
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL DECREASE IN DEPTH TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WHILE THE COAST AND VALLEYS COOL A FEW
DEGREES. THAT COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. WITH THE
COOLING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER DESERTS AROUND 100.
AVIATION
190900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SATELLITE SHOWS VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS,
GENERALLY ONLY OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, WITH BASES AROUND
1400-1800FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000FT MSL. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 12Z, ALTHOUGH WILL GENERALLY HANG
OFFSHORE EVERYWHERE BUT KSAN (40% CHANCE FOR CIG BEYOND 12Z) AND
KCRQ (30% CHANCE FOR CIG BEYOND 12Z). CLEARING TO THE BEACHES OCCURS
BY 16Z, WITH FULL CLEARING BY 21Z. COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, ALTHOUGH ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL SEE VERY LOW BASES, AROUND 300-600FT MSL, WITH VIS IMPACTS
LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR CIGS/LOW VIS AT ANY COASTAL SITES WILL BE
BETWEEN 12Z-17Z TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY SITES SEEING AN
HOUR OR MORE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS IS LESS THAN 15%.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT, PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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