131
FXUS66 KSGX 192055
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING LOCALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AROUND AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
LOW CLOUDS WILL REGATHER FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS BY LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SPARSE AND LIMITED MOSTLY ONLY TO 5 TO 10 MILES
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AS
WELL, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
FROM THE CARLSBAD AREA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON AN UPWARD TREND, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS
RUNS LAST WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM WHERE THEY WERE ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. A
CONSENSUS OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PUTS THE AVERAGE 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AT ROUGHLY 585 DM, WHICH IS LESS THAN THE NEAR 590 DM
THAT MODELS SHOWED EARLIER. DUE TO THIS, HIGHS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT, ALTHOUGH STILL ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR MOST AREAS. BECAUSE IT IS GENERALLY A MODERATE RISK FOR
MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AND DESERTS, WITH VERY IN THE WAY OF ANY
AREAS WITH A HIGH RISK, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD OFF AT THIS
TIME ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED IN THE UPCOMING
DAYS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE, UNLESS THERE BECOMES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
COASTAL EDDY, WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND TROUGHING UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHWEST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
REGION AND ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT, CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE, AND THIS
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
192030Z...COAST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 600-900 FEET
MSL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
SOMEWHAT RANDOM COVERAGE. MOST LIKELY COVERAGE BETWEEN 10-16Z
TUESDAY, AND SCATTER OUT BY 16Z.
INLAND...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...MARTIN
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