414
FXUS66 KSGX 032030
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE TODAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS MELT AWAY ACROSS THE
BEACHES. A WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS
INCREASE A LOT, SUBTLE WARMING BY A 3-5 DEGREES WILL OCCUR BY
FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR COASTAL
AND WESTERN VALLEY REGIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A BUILDING HEATWAVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO, MOVES OVER OUR
AREA. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED,
WHERE IT INDICATES THE SYSTEM PEAKING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF STORM CHANCES TO
BE LIMITED BELOW 10 PERCENT, AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOCAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY WITH THE HOT WEATHER, ESPECIALLY
FOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A NEAR ~ 600 DM HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL TRIGGER HIGHS NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES RISING OVER 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND INLAND EMPIRE. WE WILL ALSO BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, WHERE NBM SHOWS MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCES OF PLACES LIKE JULIAN AND ANZA SEEING HIGHS REACH AT
LEAST 95 DEGREES. 80S AND 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR OTHER MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THOSE WITH HEAT
SENSITIVITIES OR WITHOUT PROPER COOLING METHODS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE DECREASE IN
THE HIGH'S INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS INTENSE.
AVIATION
032000Z....COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED THE
INLAND AREAS WITH THE MARINE LAYER HANGING JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. BRIEF CIG WITH BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN AND OUT OF
COASTAL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE REMAINING CLEAR.
LOW CLOUDS PUSH ASHORE AGAIN BY 02Z, WITH BASES GENERALLY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING, AROUND 1000FT MSL. INLAND SPREAD
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS MORNING, REACHING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IE. LOCALIZED VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1-3SM FOR
COASTAL MESAS AND VALLEYS. CLOUDS TO CLEAR TO THE BEACHES BY 16-17Z
FRI, WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AT SOME BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FEW CU NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 15K FT MSL.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL (190 DEGREES) OF 3 FEET AT 15-17 SECONDS
WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF OF 3-5 FT WITH SETS TO 6 FT ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, STRONG
RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS EXPECTED AT ALL BEACHES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT AND CONTAINS MORE
INFORMATION. SWELL AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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