867
FXUS66 KSGX 291531
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
831 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL BE DRYING THROUGH SUNDAY AND WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INCREASING THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR
INLAND AREAS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING UPDATE
CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN OVER SOCAL AS TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY, MAKING FOR A FABULOUS FRIDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (254 AM FRIDAY)
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OF A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S TO 102 FOR
THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 106 TO 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS LOWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE GREATEST FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
AND WILL FALL TO 10 PERCENT TODAY AND 5 PERCENT OR LESS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN AND
SPREAD INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS LATE EACH NIGHT
OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WARMING FOR THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
WHILE DESERT AREAS SLOWLY COOL DURING THE WEEK AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY OF AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL COOL BY THURSDAY TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 100 TO 105 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN PLATEAUING
INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND IN SEPTEMBER. CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. NBM DAILY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR BIG BEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR
EACH DAY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NBM DAILY CHANCES FOR ONE-
HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL AT BIG BEAR ARE 5 PERCENT OR LESS.
AVIATION
291530Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED EXCEPTIONS. CUMULUS BASED AT 10000 FEET MSL
OVER MOUNTAINS 19-00Z. ALSO, PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS BASED AT 800
FEET AFTER 10Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES... A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURF OF 3-5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SETS TO 6
FEET WILL PRESENT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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