854
FXUS66 KSGX 300339
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
839 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY UNDER SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO RETURN TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTER A FEW FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST BUT STABLE ATMOSPHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING.
SOME MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AT BEST.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO LESS THAN ONE
INCH IN THE LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY
NOTABLE CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GROW AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST, NBM 50-75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HEAT PEAKING BY LABOR DAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY BE NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS
THE INLAND EMPIRE, WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE OC/SD VALLEYS, AND
NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND ANZA-BORREGO
DESERT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE
REGION, WHERE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING METHODS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR LABOR DAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BY
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
30-45% ACROSS THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP STEER MONSOONAL FLOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION, LOWERING THE CHANCES OF STORMS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DRY WEATHER WITH A
SUBTLE COOLING TREND INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
300300Z...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING REGION-WIDE. VERY PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 800-1000 FEET 10-16Z SATURDAY ALONG
THE SD COUNTY COAST.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SURF OF 3-6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SETS TO 7 FEET
WILL PRESENT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT GOES
INTO LATE MONDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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