759
FXUS66 KSGX 301546
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
846 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY UNDER SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO RETURN TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COASTLINE DID NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PATCHY SPOT JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA JOLLA.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH
FURTHER DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR INLAND AREAS
BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 AM
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
A PARTIALLY FLATTENED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE IN RECENT DAYS.
THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME RECYCLED MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID
LATS TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, HOWEVER, THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH MORE DEPLETED TODAY AND LIKELY ONLY RESULTING IN A FEW
CLOUDS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE
OF THIS, A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER, AND POSSIBLE
STORM, EXISTS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE CLEAR AND
DRY ELSEWHERE. THE MARINE LAYER IS VERY SPARSE, WITH LACK OF
COVERAGE AT THIS HOUR AND CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS, EVEN AT THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE INNER
COASTAL WATERS AND WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE INTERSECTING COASTAL
FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS WITHIN SOME OF THE LOWER-LYING VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TONIGHT, BUT WITH SIMILAR BASES.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
THE RIDGE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE INLAND
EMPIRE (IE). POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY, AND WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE TO BE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY, WILL THERE BE THE NEED FOR
HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND MAYBE EVEN
WITHIN THE LOWER DESERTS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
COOLDOWN AND ALSO SOME INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CWA AND ALLOWS FOR SOME
OF THE MOISTURE TO GET ADVECTED UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, AS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PROPAGATES, THIS MIGHT NOT ONLY HELP TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, BUT MIGHT ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE DESERTS
SLIGHTLY COOLER, GOING INTO THE LATE PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
301500Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING REGION-WIDE. VERY PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS BASED 600-1000FT MSL MAY START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SD COUNTY
COAST AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z OF CLOUDS
PUSHING UP TO 5 MILES INLAND. ANY CLOUDS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY 17Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
A LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SEC) SOUTHERLY SWELL (180-200 DEGREES) WILL
BRING ELEVATED SURF THROUGH TUESDAY, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. SURF OF 3-6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SETS TO 7 FEET WILL
PRESENT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH- FACING
BEACHES. BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...ZUBER
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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