759  
FXUS66 KSGX 061049  
AFDSGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA  
349 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER DAYS  
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DECREASE IN DEPTH WITH NIGHT  
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS NOT SPREADING AS FAR INTO THE VALLEYS BY  
WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE  
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PEAKING ON FRIDAY.  
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLING FOR NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS NEXT SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
 
 
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTIES...  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER DAYS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARMING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
COAST AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE  
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST  
TO THE 80S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR  
THE LOWER DESERTS. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN  
AND LOWER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS INCREASING IN  
COVERAGE, BUT NOT SPREADING AS FAR INTO THE VALLEYS FOR TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT MOISTURE  
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN  
STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
OF THE ECMWF. FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, THE MODEL CLUSTER THAT IS WETTEST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA CONTAINS MORE THAN HALF OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
DETERMINISTIC NBM OUTPUT HAS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PEAKING ACROSS  
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL  
PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 25 TO 35 PERCENT WITH CHANCES FOR ONE INCH OR  
MORE OF RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 5 PERCENT.  
 
THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX SHOWS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS  
FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY-UNUSUAL RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY EXTENDS FROM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA THROUGH  
NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE EASTERN DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.  
 
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLING FOR NEXT WEEKEND  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS NEXT SUNDAY AS MUCH AS 5  
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
060930Z....COASTS/WESTERN VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR 1500-2000  
FEET MSL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS  
THROUGH SUNRISE. SCATTER OUT TO OCCUR BY 16-18Z, BUT WITH PATCHY  
CIGS PERSISTING AND INTERMITTENT AT THE COAST THEREAFTER. LOW  
CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES MOVING INTO THE COAST AND WESTERN  
VALLEYS AFTER 02Z OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
INLAND VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT  
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SKYWARN
 
 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...17  
AVIATION/MARINE...MM  
 
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