144
FXUS66 KSGX 190329
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
829 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. GRADUAL WARMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL BE MOSTLY ABSENT FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY
RETURNING MONDAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING OVER THE REGION FORM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
ALTHOUGH NO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE, AND POSSIBLY WITHIN SOME OF THE WIND-
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
THE TREND IS LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO MORE TROUGHING AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THE RETURN OF SANTA ANA CONDITIONS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 149 PM):
ANOTHER DELIGHTFULLY SUNNY DAY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH NEAR OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY AS A PINCHED OFF
STATIONARY LOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES INTO
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH 70S/80S FOR
COASTS AND INLAND AREAS, 60S/70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, UPPER 80S/LOW
90S FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SD COUNTY DESERTS, AND 70S IN THE
HIGH DESERT. THE ABSENT MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED MANY PLACES TO WARM
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY, BUT ALSO COOL OFF EFFICIENTLY EACH NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. A VERY PATCHY MARINE LAYER MAY MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING, EXPANDING MONDAY AND DEEPENING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A
BIT TUESDAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW 80S IN THE
DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL AND INLAND
AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THIS, THE LOW SEEMS TO LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR THE REGION TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A ROUGE RAIN SHOWER OR TWO TO IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY AND MODELS HAVE REFRAINED FROM JUMPING ON THE POSSIBILITY
AT ALL.
AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND OUT OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE, WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY FRIDAY. IN THE EXTENDED, THE NEXT MASSIVE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS
TO FUNNEL DOWN FROM THE PACNW SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BE OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RAIN. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE SEEN WITH MANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE PAST, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH FOR US TO BENEFIT WITH SOCAL ONLY
GETTING SOME STRONG WINDS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
190300Z....SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FG AT THE COAST BETWEEN 08-
15Z SUN. BETTER CHANCE (35-45%) FOR PATCHY FG TO DEVELOP AT THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...ZUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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