556
FXUS66 KSGX 032144
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
144 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND WITH
BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN STRENGTH BY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER WEATHER. THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKIER
BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION, ONE OF WHICH THAT
MAY BRING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FADED AWAY OFF THE COAST AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE TO SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN ITS PRESENCE AS WELL, KEEPING THE
MARINE LAYER OF SIMILAR DEPTH BY TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT DEEPENING
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GARNER MORE LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE TO MUCH OF
THE COASTAL BASIN EACH MORNING WITH ELEVATED AREAS SEEING FOGGY
CONDITIONS, LIKE IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN TO PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
DESERTS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND TO BE ELEVATED WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 35-45 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE PASSES.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
MORE BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS WIND AND
WARMER WEATHER AREA WIDE. THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE
WINDS FROM THE EAST, WHERE WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BREEZE
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND WESTERN VALLEYS. NBM SHOWS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS; WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THESE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS.
BY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON EXACTLY WHAT PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH FORMING OFF THE PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND, BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST WHETHER A PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA OR HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL STICK
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW AROUND 25% OF
MEMBERS BECOMING A BIT WETTER BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS OF
NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AND
AMOUNTS FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT HINTS OF PATTERN CHANGE ARE DEFINITELY
IN OUR VIEW AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
032130Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...VFR CURRENTLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
AND PUSH BACK ASHORE AFTER 02Z, WITH BASES AROUND 500-900 FEET MSL.
VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 04-06Z; 2-5SM FOR ELEVATED
COASTAL TERRAIN/WESTERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY 1/4-1SM FOR INLAND
VALLEYS/INLAND EMPIRE IN FG. PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS ELSEWHERE, 4-
6SM, SUCH AS KSAN AND KSNA, DUE TO HZ/BR. VIS TO IMPROVE 15-17Z TUES
MORNING AS BASES RISE. SCATTER OUT 16-18Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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