170
FXUS66 KSGX 052129
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
129 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL WARM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON
SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED SOMETIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS COOLER, BREEZIER, AND
WETTER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
PEAK WINDS GUSTS AS OF 1 PM WERE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE, WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION AT WHITEWATER WHICH RECORDED A GUST OF 54 MPH AT
12:50 PM. OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS AT 1 PM WERE RUNNING 3 TO 13
DEGREES COOLER THAN 1 PM YESTERDAY. VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING THE
GREATEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, WITH THE COAST AND SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
WAS SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
THE DESERTS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF WEAK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY, HIGHS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE BIGGEST
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL EXPECTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED COOLING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHALLOWER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS
STAYING MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. FASTER SOLUTIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS PUSHING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. NBM DAILY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT ON TUESDAY, INCREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY, AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS INCREASING FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT EXPECTED. THE STRENGTH AND
DEPTH OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT IN OUR
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH
BRINGING COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
052100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1,500 FT TO 3,500 FT
MSL LINGER ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUD CIGS WILL REDEVELOP,
MORE LIKELY INLAND BETWEEN 00-05Z THURSDAY, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE COASTAL BASIN OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUD BASES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE AROUND 2,500-3,500 FEET MSL, WITH TOPS AROUND 4,500 FEET MSL, AND
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN NATURE. LOW CIGS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
THURSDAY STARTING IN COASTAL/INLAND SAN DIEGO COUNTY AFTER 09Z, THEN
BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 17Z FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, CLEARING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND INTO DESERTS, PRODUCING AREAS OF STRONG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
SURF WILL INCREASE THURSDAY, PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY. SURF OF 4-7 FEET IS EXPECTED, LOCALLY HIGHER ON
WEST-FACING BEACHES, PRODUCING A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. IN ADDITION,
VERY HIGH TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED SURF TO INCREASE THE
RISK OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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