561
FXUS66 KSGX 060507
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
REMAINING COOL THURSDAY, THEN WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
SOMETIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DETAILS COOLER, BREEZIER, AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE....
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE 00Z KNKX SOUNDING
SHOWS A MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 2700 FT MSL. DESPITE A
DECENTLY STRONG MARINE INVERSION EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH, CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY DUE TO MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE
PASSES WHERE GUSTS ARE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH, WEAKENING
THURSDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
THE DESERTS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF WEAK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY, HIGHS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE BIGGEST
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL EXPECTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED COOLING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHALLOWER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS
STAYING MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. FASTER SOLUTIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS PUSHING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. NBM DAILY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT ON TUESDAY, INCREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY, AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS INCREASING FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT EXPECTED. THE STRENGTH AND
DEPTH OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT IN OUR
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH
BRINGING COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
060500Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING
WITH A FEW STRAY PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. COVERAGE OF THESE
PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF BKN/OVC CIGS AT ANY TERMINALS FOR MORE THAN 30-60 MINUTES
AT A TIME. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CIGS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 7-11Z ALONG
COASTAL SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. BASES OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
BE ABOUT 2500 FT MSL. ANY LINGERING AREAS OF PATCHY CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 15-18Z THURSDAY. A MORE UNIFORM MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS SET TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PUSH ASHORE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. BASES INITIALLY NEAR 2500FT MSL SHOULD
LOWER TO CLOSER TO 1500FT MSL BY 12Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
TONIGHT, CLEARING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND INTO DESERTS, PRODUCING AREAS OF STRONG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS. WINDS TAPPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KTS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WITH GUSTS CLOSER
TO 10-15 KTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
A 4-5FT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (280-290 DEGREES) AT 14-15 SECONDS
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY. SURF WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT, WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 4-7 FEET EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HIGHER SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FACING
BEACHES. THE LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO PRODUCE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
IN ADDITION, HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED
SURF TO INCREASE THE RISK OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page