058
FXUS66 KSGX 061718
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
918 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER AND PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMEST DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER, WINDIER, AND POTENTIALLY
WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 9 AM, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ON ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
KEEPING ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP MORE CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LACK OF LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY WARM EFFICIENTLY
TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
THE COASTAL BASIN. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF WEAK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL EXPECTED IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND
DISPLACE IT TO OUR EAST. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE'S FORWARD PROGRESSION. IF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SLOWS, THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER SOCAL FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT. ABOUT 20
PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE RIDGE STILL
OVER THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE REST OF
THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE HIGH FURTHER EAST. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IS SHOWING ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE INCOMING LOW OFFSHORE, WITH 20 PERCENT
SHOWING THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, AND 10 PERCENT HAVE THE RIDGE
AXIS STILL OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. NBM CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL FALL DURING THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE EVENTUAL DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING LOW WILL
ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POTENTIALLY
SNOW FORECAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
THE DETAILS OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
061630Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY, WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AROUND 2,000 FT MSL ALONG THE COAST. A MORE UNIFORM
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS TO PUSH ASHORE AFTER
00Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AFTER 05Z IN ORANGE COUNTY, WITH A 40%
CHANCE OF CIGS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. BASES INITIALLY NEAR 2,000 FT
MSL SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 1,500 FT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS 25-35 KTS THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS TODAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15
SECONDS WILL GENERATE SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET.
HIGHEST SURF WILL BE SOUTH OF DEL MAR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ELEVATED SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES COULD LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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