208
FXUS66 KSGX 070518
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
918 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND
PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER, WINDIER, AND POTENTIALLY WETTER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WERE QUICK TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND
THIS EVENING, ALREADY REACHING THE INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND THE FAR SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER ORANGE COUNTY, THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, KEEPING ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP MORE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY, POTENTIALLY DENSE,
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNINGS THIS WEEKEND.
AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. THE GREATEST WARMING WILL
BE FOR THE VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF WEAK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 15 DEGREES,
LOCALLY UP TO 20 DEGREES, ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE
FROM NORMAL EXPECTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. EVEN WITH THE
COOLING, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR INLAND AREAS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND
DISPLACE IT TO OUR EAST. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE'S FORWARD PROGRESSION. IF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SLOWS, THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER SOCAL FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT. ABOUT 20
PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE HIGH STILL
OVER THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE REST OF
THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE HIGH FURTHER EAST. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IS SHOWING ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE INCOMING LOW OFFSHORE, WITH 20 PERCENT SHOWING
THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, AND 10 PERCENT HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS STILL
OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL FALL
DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE
INCOMING LOW WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WIND, TEMPERATURE,
AND POTENTIALLY SNOW FORECAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE DETAILS OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
070345Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 1000-1500 FT MSL HAS
MOVED ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND INTO SAN DIEGO CO AND SOUTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY. GOOD CHANCE FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE, INCLUDING 40% CHANCE VCNTY KONT AND 15% CHANCE VCNTY KSBD.
LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR 15Z, LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES. CIGS LOWER TO 700-
1000 FT MSL AS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER SAT 01Z AND MOVE INTO
COASTAL REGIONS.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 4 TO 7 FEET. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE SOUTH OF DEL MAR THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES COULD
LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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