560
FXUS66 KSGX 071059
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
259 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND
PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS ON SUNDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOUDY, COOLER, WINDIER, AND POTENTIALLY WETTER TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2500-3000 FT DEEP WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING 15-20 MILES INLAND. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY OFFSHORE WITH -4.7 MB SAN-TPH AND TRENDING
STRONGER. AT THIS TIME, DIURNAL SLOPE WINDS ARE PREVALENT BUT WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING
OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY COULD BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS.
AFTER THE INLAND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL REACH
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWER
DESERTS, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 12-17 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAKE THE MARINE LAYER MUCH SHALLOWER,
CONFINING THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS, MOSTLY ALONG THE COASTAL MTN SLOPES AND IN
THE PASSES AND CANYONS. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON SUNDAY WHEN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW ABOUT 1400 MILES WEST OF
SAN DIEGO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A MORE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST. THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MERGE AS THEY MOVE
EAST, WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST. THE
RESULTING LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS,
ONSHORE FLOW, INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT THU-FRI. FORECAST DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN BUT AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
BEGINNING TO FAVOR A WET SOLUTION.
AVIATION
071030Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 800-1600 FEET MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO COVER COASTAL AREAS AND
INFILTRATE INTO PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST 16-18Z. LOWER CIGS 600-1000 FEET MSL WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER 01Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AFTER 06Z IN ORANGE
COUNTY, BUT REMAIN ONLY IN COASTAL AREAS. VIS REDUCED 3-5SM ON
HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET, WITH SETS 7 TO 8 FEET. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE
SOUTH OF DEL MAR THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH
TIDES COULD LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
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