211
FXUS66 KSGX 071724
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
924 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER AND PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMEST DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER, WINDIER, AND POTENTIALLY
WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 9 AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD MOSTLY CLEARED INLAND AREAS. SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WHICH HAD REACHED INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE VALLEYS. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OCCURRING ON THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY, WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WEEKEND, THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE CONFINED
TO COASTAL AREAS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AND PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING WARMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY TO THE COAST
AND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12-17 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AREAS OF MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST HEATRISK EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHEN
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND DISPLACE
IT TO OUR EAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE'S FORWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER. IF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
STAYS SLOWER, THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER SOCAL FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK THAN CURRENTLY
THOUGHT. ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE HIGH STILL OVER THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE REST OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE HIGH FURTHER
EAST. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IS SHOWING
ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE INCOMING LOW
OFFSHORE, WITH 10 PERCENT SHOWING THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, AND 10
PERCENT HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
BORDER. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL FALL DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EVENTUAL DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING LOW WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POTENTIALLY SNOW FORECAST.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWS THE NBM WITH BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND A COOLING TREND FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
DETAILS OF NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
071630Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 800-1,600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2,000 FT ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT, CLEARING THE
COAST BY 18Z. LOWER CIGS 600-1,000 FT MSL WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 01Z
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AFTER 06Z IN ORANGE COUNTY WITH VIS REDUCED
3-5 SM ON HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. CIGS ARE ONLY ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
IN 10 TO 15 MILES ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR INLAND BY 19-20Z BUT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET, WITH SETS 7 TO 8 FEET. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE
SOUTH OF DEL MAR THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH
TIDES COULD LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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