943
FXUS66 KSGX 080438
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
838 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER AND PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMEST DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER, WINDIER, AND WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD BACK INTO THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS, WITH
PATCHIER COVERAGE OVER ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY OFFSHORE, CURRENTLY AT -5.5
MB SAN-TPH AND -1.3 MB LAX-DAG. ANY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE BE CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IN IMPACT ON THE LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK COASTAL EDDY
IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MESAS AND
WESTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT, BUT ANY DENSE FOG WOULD BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING WARMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY TO THE COAST
AND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12-17 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. AREAS OF MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE HIGHEST HEATRISK EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHEN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE US WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND DISPLACE
IT TO OUR EAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE'S FORWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER. IF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
STAYS SLOWER, THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER SOCAL FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK THAN CURRENTLY
THOUGHT. ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE HIGH STILL OVER THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE REST OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE HIGH FURTHER EAST.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IS SHOWING ABOUT 80
PERCENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE INCOMING LOW OFFSHORE, WITH
10 PERCENT SHOWING THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, AND 10 PERCENT HAVE THE
RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK MORE LIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL FALL
DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE
INCOMING LOW WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WIND, TEMPERATURE,
AND POTENTIALLY SNOW FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWS THE NBM WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND A
COOLING TREND FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE DETAILS OF NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST SO STAY
TUNED!
AVIATION
080400Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SOMEWHAT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BASED 900-1200
FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1400 FT HAVE MOVED INLAND TO ABOUT 15 MILES IN
SAN DIEGO CO AND STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST.
CIGS MAY DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO 600-1100 FT MSL, WITH VIS
REDUCED TO 3-6 SM OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING
TO THE BEACHES 18-20Z BUT LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS 500-900 FT MSL MOVE BACK ASHORE AFTER
00Z SUN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS/CO
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page