630
FXUS66 KSGX 262121
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A COOLING TREND AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL SLOPE AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS REGIONS SEEING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25-40 MPH. WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALOFT BY
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, LEADING TO COMMUNITIES SEEING HIGHS
NEAR 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO
THE WEST WILL WILL HELP BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GREATER
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER
INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS MATCHES THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS WHICH HAVE GONE DOWN WHEN LOOKING AT PAST
MODELS RUNS OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NBM POPS HAVE GONE DOWN TO
AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPIATION ON SUNDAY
INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY BEING COOLER WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SOCAL WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE
WITH DRY WEATHER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOMETIME AROUND NEXT TUESDAY, PUSHING SOUTHWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. OUT AHEAD OF IT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO COME BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS AS OF NOW
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THIS
EVENT. IF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM GOES FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. IF IT STAYS FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE DESERT, WE WOULD RECEIVE NOTHING. NBM POPS ARE
AROUND 20-30% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY THIS TIME, BUT THINGS
WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD CLOSER AND SEE WHERE THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM ENDS UP.
AVIATION
262100Z...COASTS...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. E TO NE WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING 25-40 KT IN
MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH WEAKER GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS STRETCHING INTO
VALLEYS BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED OFFSHORE WIND
GUSTS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN PASSES BY 06Z THURSDAY. AREAS
OF LLWS/LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ALONG FOOTHILLS/WEST MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...MUNYAN
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