308
FXUS66 KSGX 270415
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
815 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A COOLING TREND
AND A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ARE ABSENT DUE TO THE SANTA ANA WINDS WHICH ALSO
BROUGHT WARMER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 80S IN SOME PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS
AND 2 LOCATIONS SET NEW RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH -5.2 MB SAN-DAG. IN THE LAST HOUR,
THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS REPORTED EAST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
SLOPES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALOFT FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, LEADING TO COMMUNITIES SEEING HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE WEST WILL
WILL HELP BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GREATER ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLING ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
MATCHES THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS WHICH HAVE GONE DOWN WHEN LOOKING
AT PAST MODELS RUNS OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THE NBM SHOWS
THAT THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE GONE DOWN TO
AROUND A 10% FOR SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY BEING COOLER
WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SOCAL WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE
WITH DRY WEATHER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOMETIME AROUND NEXT TUESDAY, PUSHING SOUTHWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. OUT AHEAD OF IT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO COME BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS AS OF NOW
LOOK FAIRLY WEAK, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THIS
EVENT. IF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM GOES FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. IF IT STAYS FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE DESERT, WE WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. NBM
POPS ARE AROUND 20-30% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY THIS TIME, BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD CLOSER AND SEE WHERE THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP.
AVIATION
270345Z...COASTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. E
TO NE WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KT IN MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH LOCALIZED
WEAKER GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS STRETCHING INTO VALLEYS BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH 18Z THU. AREAS OF LLWS/LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ALONG
FOOTHILLS/COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THU AM.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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