447
FXUS66 KSGX 272043
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1243 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOLING TREND WILL ENSUE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MOST
NOTABLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS, AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THOUGH THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WITH GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 30 MPH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WITH PATCHY SHALLOW
LOW CLOUDS NEARING THE COAST AT TIMES. A WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, HELPING TO WEAKEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER WEATHER WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW. BY THE WEEKEND, MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH 50S ACROSS AREAS ABOVE
5,000 FEET. CHANCES FOR FOG WILL INCREASE NEAR COASTAL AREAS INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT,
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S FOR VALLEYS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL PROJECTIONS
SHOW QUITE A VARIED ARRAY OF WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL GO. SOME
PROJECTIONS POINT TO A MORE INLAND SCENARIO, WHERE WE WOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH SANTA ANA WINDS. OTHERS POINT TO A WETTER SCENARIO,
WHERE THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA OR OFF THE OCEAN. NBM
SHOWS INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND 15-30% BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS ON THE PATH OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM AND HOW IT COULD IMPACT YOUR AREA.
AVIATION
272030Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...VFR PREVAILING WITH SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 20,000FT MSL. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE (35-50%) OF BRIEF IMPACTS AT KSAN
WITH BASES AROUND 500-800FT MSL AND A 30% CHANCE AT KSNA OR KCRQ.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS WILL BE BETWEEN 11-17Z FRI. LOCALIZED
VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 3-5SM POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL,
WITH POSSIBLY LOWER FOR COASTAL TERRAIN. ANY CLOUDS THAT MADE IT
ASHORE WILL FILTER BACK TO THE COAST BY 18-19Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS SCT-BKN AOA 20,000FT MSL PREVAILING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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