138
FXUS66 KSGX 291658
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 AM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRY THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING, THEN INCREASING COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AND WEAKEN TUESDAY FOR WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER. THERE IS A 20-35% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING UPDATE...
WHILE LINGERING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN ORANGE COUNTY
THIS MORNING, THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS THE CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVE.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK, REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLING WITH
HIGHS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AS ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35-45 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE PASSES AND THE DESERT SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. GRADIENTS QUICKLY TURN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OR NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE DIGGING TROUGH (850 MB WINDS OF 15-20 KT), ALBEIT
BRIEFLY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK ON MONDAY WHEN GUSTS
OF 30-45 MPH ARE LIKELY BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS AND INTO THE
VALLEYS, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE CAJON PASS AND
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE WARMER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT
COOLER ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS BACK
ONSHORE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR COOLING AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL QUESTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ENSEMBLES
REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWESTWARD THE TROUGH DIGS,
WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) PRECIPITATION WE'LL SEE. FOR
WEDNESDAY, AROUND 58% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW FAR
ENOUGH WEST FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THE EVENING. BY
THURSDAY, 32% KEEP A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA
(LIGHT PRECIPITATION), 25% HAVE THE TRACK INSIDE (DRY), 22%
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST (RELATIVELY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION), AND 21% HAVE A WEAKER LOW CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY (LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST BUT HEAVIER
INLAND). EVEN INTO FRIDAY, 48% OF THE MEMBERS KEEP A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SO CAL WHILE THE REMAINING 52% HAVE A
WEAKER OPEN WAVE INLAND. WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION, WE COULD
CONTINUE TO SEE COOLER WEATHER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THE LOW
IS CLOSE ENOUGH, OR WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/INSIDE TRACK IT'LL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS BEEN
PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL, IS MUCH DRIER ON FRIDAY THAN ITS EPS AND
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW JUST HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE (15-35%) POPS LIMITED TO WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
291600Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED
300-700FT MSL REMAIN ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS WITH VIS BETWEEN 1/4-2SM
BUT ARE QUICKLY CLEARING, WITH VFR EVERYWHERE EXPECTED BEYOND 18Z.
VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND VIS WILL REDEVELOP AND
MOVE ASHORE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND
EXTENT. A WEAK EDDY MAY ALLOW BASES TO RISE A BIT AND CLEAR OUT
QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY BY 13Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MUNYAN
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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