673
FXUS66 KSGX 302138
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
138 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS INTO MONDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AND WEAKEN TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES INCREASE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA
WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. GRADUAL WARMING THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND 500 MB MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED 500 MB
JET OF ABOUT 50-70 KTS DIPPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW IS ALLOWED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT, PARTICULARLY FELT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING THE HIGH DESERTS AND THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS,
WITH UP TO 35-45 MPH GUSTS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE INCREASE ONSHORE
FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ALLOWED FOR A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND A FOGGY/CLOUDY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON PEAK A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP WITH
INLAND CLOUD COVER EXTENT EXPECTED THROUGH INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, SERVING TO STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FEATURING A PERIOD OF WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
STRENGTH SANTA ANA WINDS. NORTHERLY/EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PICK EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WEAKENING MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH STRETCH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO AND
ORANGE COUNTIES, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH FOCUSED IN
AND JUST BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES TICK BACK UP SOME
TOMORROW, WITH DRY DESERT AIR PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL BASIN FROM
THE WEAK SANTA ANAS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH KICK OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
AS A RESULT, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS NOW
GENERALLY AGREES THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS SOME MEMBERS
HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AND KICKING EASTWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK FAVORS A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION
WITH POPS NOW FALLING TO A MEAGER 10-20% WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LARGELY
NEGLIGIBLE. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THIS
MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH, WEAK TO MODERATE
SANTA ANA WINDS SIMILAR OR A TOUCH WEAKER THAN MONDAY'S EVENT
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
TUESDAY'S ONSHORE FLOW, BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENED AND LARGELY
RESTRICTED TO THE COASTS OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE PATTERN.
AVIATION
302030Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 1300-
2000FT MSL MOVE ASHORE AS EARLY AS 00-01Z MONDAY. INTERMITTENT CIGS
AT KSAN PRIOR TO THIS. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE
INLAND EMPIRE SOME TIME AFTER 04Z MON. BASES WILL RISE BEGINNING
AROUND 10-11Z AS OFFSHORE WINDS KICK IN, TO AROUND 1800-2400FT MSL
OR HIGHER, AND CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 18Z MON.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KT, UP TO 45 KT THROUGH
WIND-PRONE PASSES, AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS AND EASTERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES, PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE
AND BREEZY AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS,
EASTERN VALLEYS, AND INLAND EMPIRE, WITH LOCAL AREAS OF LLWS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MUNYAN
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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