791
FXUS66 KSGX 010528
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS INTO MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AND WEAKEN TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS WEEK.
CHANCES INCREASE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA
WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. GRADUAL WARMING THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MARINE LAYER IS MUCH DEEPER THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY SPREAD ABOUT 15 MILES INLAND, COVERING ALMOST ALL OF THE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. WITH ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND BEFORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SFC HIGH FOLLOWING A TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE THE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY BUT
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED TO THE WIND-PRONE
AREAS DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WEAKENING MONDAY EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH STRETCH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE
AND INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH FOCUSED IN AND JUST BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES. TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW, WITH DRY DESERT AIR
PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL BASIN FROM THE WEAK SANTA ANAS. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, KEEPING IT OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE HIGH MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS A
RESULT, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM, MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS NOW GENERALLY AGREES THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS
DEEP AS SOME MEMBERS INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AND MOVING EASTWARD
INTO AZ/NM BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK FAVORS A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING TO A MEAGER 10-20%
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY NOT MEASURABLE. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE
OF THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THIS MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH, WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS
SIMILAR OR A TOUCH WEAKER THAN MONDAY'S EVENT EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
TUESDAY'S ONSHORE FLOW, BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENED AND LARGELY
RESTRICTED TO THE COASTS OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE PATTERN.
AVIATION
010400Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY CLOUDS BASED 1700-2200 FT MSL
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ALONG THE COAST INTO INLAND AREAS, INCLUDING
INTO PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. 30-40% CHANCE FOR CIGS AT KONT/KSBD
05-09Z THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE FOR COASTAL FOOTHILLS
INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS EARLY MON MORNING, ERODING CLOUDS
OUT OF INLAND AREAS AS EARLY AS 10-13Z, COASTAL AREAS 13-16Z. LOCAL
EAST/NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20-35 KT IN PARTS OF THE IE AFTER 16Z
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH LOCAL AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE. 20% CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS BASED 700-1500 FT MSL FOR COASTAL AREAS MON EVENING.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE AND BREEZY AFTER 10Z FOR THE COASTAL
MTN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS, WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LOCALLY 25-
40 KTS, AND LOCAL AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
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