103
FXUS66 KSGX 050458
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 PM PST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAKER SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO THE STATE BY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH NO MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER BUT STILL OFFSHORE AND THE SANTA
ANA WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS HOUR
IN AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY OVER THE AREA,
WITH SIMILAR WEATHER TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 60S/70S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH 50S CLOSER TO BIG BEAR LAKE,
MT. SAN JACINTO, AND MT. LAGUNA.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST,
EXPANDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEIGHTS START TO RISE BY SUNDAY, INITIATING THE START OF A WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE REGION. NBM SHOWS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
VALLEYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE FOR FOG
NEAR THE COAST IS LOW, BUT NOT NONZERO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH AS WE VENTURE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW GRADIENT AND THE STRENGHT OF
THE HIGH WILL DETERMINE THE SPECIFICS OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
NBM SHOWS HIGHS APPROACHING 85 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE
EXACT HIGHS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER ON HOW LONG THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER THE OUTCOME, WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
050400Z....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS IN MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. 10-
20% CHANCE PATCHY FG OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AND AT THE COASTLINE
AFTER 03Z SAT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
THOUGH SURF DIMINISHES TODAY AND FRIDAY, VERY HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING, THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING, MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
AND BEACH EROSION. CHECK THE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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