016
FXUS66 KSGX 070954
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
154 AM PST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A FEW THIN PATCHES OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARDS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW,
SO CHANCES OF FOG FORMING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ARE DIMINISHING.
THE HREF HAS A 20-40% CHANCE OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT COVERAGE OF ANY FOG WOULD BE
SPARSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST PAC WILL
STRENGTHEN BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARDS OVER WESTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRIVE SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS SO CAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. GRADUAL WARMING TAKES PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW, WHEN HIGHS
WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE LOW DESERTS. WITH WINDS BEING
PURELY GRADIENT-DRIVEN, THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL PASSES,
CANYONS, AND COASTAL SLOPES EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST PEAK IN THE WINDS IS STILL FORECAST TO BE ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH PEAK GUSTS NOW AROUND 25-40
MPH IN THE WIND-PRONE AREAS.
WEAKER SANTA ANA WINDS AND THE WEAKENING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR
COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. ENSEMBLES ARE NOW SHOWING ANOTHER
PEAK IN SANTA ANA WINDS ON FRIDAY, WHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEARING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS. NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WILL REMAIN COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND-SHELTERED AREAS, MINIMIZING ANY HEAT IMPACTS. THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND, AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
"ONLY" BE 8-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND.
AVIATION
070930Z....CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE GONE DOWN FROM EARLIER WITH SAN DIEGO SEEING
CHANCES OF LESS THAN 10% AND ORANGE COUNTY AT 10-20% THROUGH 18Z
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE KEEPING THEIR DISTANCE AND
STAYING OUT OVER THE WATER FOR THE TIME BEING. CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 01Z MONDAY FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING AFTER 04Z FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY AND AFTER 09Z FOR ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 18Z. UNTIL
THEN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES.
MARINE
STILL A 10-20% CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NAUTICAL MILE
OR LESS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING THROUGH 11 AM.
BEACHES
MORNING HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 6.5 AROUND 10 AM THIS
MORNING. ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES MAY RESULT IN TIDAL OVERFLOW IN
NORMALLY DRY BEACH AREAS. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED TO FALL BELOW 6
FT BY MONDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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