409
FXUS66 KSGX 251818
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1018 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GREATER TO THE NORTH AND LESS TO THE
SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS COULD
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH SOME TIME THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
CENTERED AROUND NEW YEAR'S DAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE
ORANGE COUNTY COAST NORTHWARD TO THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE PRODUCED ISOLATED RAINFALL
OF ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF INCH. SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE HAD WEAK
ROTATION AND THERE WERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR FRIDAY FOR PRECIPITATION, EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FORMS ITS OWN
CLUSTER WITH VERY LITTLE OVERLAP WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
OTHER MODELS. THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL
ARE RELATIVELY WETTER WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM RELATIVELY
DRIER. ALL HAVE THE MORE NORTH, LESS SOUTH DISTRIBUTION OF
AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
DRYING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH WEAK OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF IT. THIS COULD BRING A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS SOME TIME CENTERED AROUND
NEW YEAR'S DAY. MODEL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS SHOW THE STRONGEST
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO REMAIN DRY FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION
251830Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...LINGERING FEW-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 4000-
6000 FT MSL EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING GENERALLY
AFTER 02Z FRI, WITH BASES ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500FT MSL.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
35-45 KT GUSTS ALONG DESERT SLOPES OF THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH DESERT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 55 KTS THROUGH PASSES. MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH DESERT. WINDS WEAKEN SOME
THIS EVENING, BUT GUSTS 25-40 KTS LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGION-WIDE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST STARTING
AROUND 12Z FRI, THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS INTERMITTENTLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS. WINDS THEN
TURN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS INTERMITTENTLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS. WINDS THEN
TURN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM
BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT ABOVE THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE-TENTH INCH NEAR THE COAST
TO 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS WITH 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH FOR THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL MOSTLY BE ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED
HOURLY RAINFALL TO AROUND ONE-THIRD INCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LIQUID-
EQUIVALENT ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY TO AROUND 4
INCHES FOR THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS SAN DIEGO
COUNTY WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD INCH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET BY DAWN THIS MORNING,
RISE TO AROUND 7500 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN FALL TO AROUND
5000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE
ABOVE 8000 FEET.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE INTO SATURDAY,
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLE
AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MUNYAN
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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