069
FXUS66 KSGX 261126
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
326 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRYING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION SOME TIME DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75
INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH EXPECTED OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ISLAND-BAND SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, DRYING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ON SATURDAY, THEN BEGIN TO
WARM FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS ON SUNDAY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR THE
COAST, VALLEYS, AND LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
DRY WEATHER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH SANTA ANA WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS A FEW TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
AVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY FOR THE COAST, VALLEYS, AND LOWER DESERTS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR MEXT MONDAY, THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING A CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, CENTERED
AROUND 20N/130W, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION BEYOND THAT FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MIGHT FALL.
CURRENTLY, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
RELATIVELY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY (NEW
YEAR'S DAY) AND FRIDAY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS, NBM CHANCES TO
RECEIVE ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL SOME TIME DURING THAT PERIOD
ARE GENERALLY 45 TO 65 PERCENT.
AVIATION
260945Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP, GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT MSL BASES WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000-7000FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR BOTH ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES GENERALLY AFTER 12Z
WITH BASES RANGING FROM 700-1500FT MSL AND LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND
2500FT MSL. BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE VFR AFTER 18Z BUT INCOMING RA
TODAY MAY BRIEFLY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS DOWNWIND OF THE SANTA ANAS
INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE AFTER 05Z FOR EVERYWHERE OTHER THAN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOW CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT MSL ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1000-3000 FT MSL AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL
FALL OFF TODAY BEFORE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS FOR THE DESERT
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z SAT. SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 35-45
KNOTS AT TIMES, LOCALLY HIGHER THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
REGION-WIDE...A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING AROUND 14Z, AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME, REACHING SAN DIEGO COUNTY
LIKELY AROUND 23Z-03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VIS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. SCT -SHRA IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND WILL CREATE INTERMITTENT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER.
BEACHES
WESTERLY SWELL (250-270 DEGREES) WILL LEAD TO SURF BUILDING 5 TO 8
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST SURF IS EXPECTED FOR WEST-FACING
BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75
INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH EXPECTED OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDE THE BURN
SCARS OF THE BRIDGE FIRE AND THE LINE FIRE, HRRR RAINFALL HAS
BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT. THE PERIOD WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH HAS GOTTEN SHORTER WITH THE
PEAK NOT HAS HIGH. FOR BOTH LOCATIONS, THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING A 3
TO 4 HOUR WIND WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50 INCH OR GREATER WITH
THE PEAK REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR. THAT WINDOW IS ROUGHLY 6
AM TO 10 AM FOR THE BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR AND 8 AM TO NOON FOR
THE LINE FIRE BURN SCAR.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS MORNING, THEN FALL
TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
AROUND 7000 FEET WITH SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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