861
FXUS66 KSGX 261834 CCA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1034 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRYING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US,
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO SOCAL THROUGH TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 28 MPH WITH THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN OF FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES - ESPECIALLY THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
OFFSHORE ISLANDS PRODUCES CONVECTION IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST, A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS GUSTING
TO 35-45 MPH IN AND BELOW THE MTN PASSES AND CANYONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY- WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (AS MUCH AS 5-6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGES) WEST OF THE MTNS.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST, DISPLACING
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRAWING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MEAN FLOW OVER SOCAL. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BUT AN INCREASING NUMBER
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOCAL BETWEEN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR PRECIPITATION DETAILS.
AVIATION
261815Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 5000FT MSL CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM ORANGE COUNTY ASSOCIATED
WITH BANDS OF LARGELY LIGHT RAINFALL ARE PRESENT WITH MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 1500-2500FT MSL. THIS COULD WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BKN
TO PROVIDE INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS, PRIMARILY IN AREAS OF MORE
STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL. THE BATCHES OF RA ASSOCIATED WITH A MAIN
BAND OF RAINFALL WILL OCCASIONALLY BRING VIS DOWN TO 2-4SM WITH ANY
HEAVIER RAIN. THIS MAIN BAND OF RA TO LOCALLY +RA IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY INTO THE WESTERN INLAND EMPIRE, AND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH RA CHANCES EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY 03-06Z SATURDAY. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LARGELY
BECOMES FEW-SCT OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME SCT-BKN AGAIN AROUND 15Z
SATURDAY WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS 15-20Z.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS DOWNWIND OF THE SANTA ANAS INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE
THROUGH 22-23Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5000FT MSL. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY THOUGH
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST FOR THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS
EXPECTED, LOCALLY HIGHER THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER.
BEACHES
WESTERLY SWELL (250-270 DEGREES) WILL LEAD TO SURF HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST SURF IS EXPECTED FOR WEST-FACING
BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75
INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH AROUND 0.25-0.35 INCH EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A 50-70
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW LEVEL IS ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 7000
FEET WITH SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FOR NEXT WED THROUGH FRI RANGES
FROM 0.25 INCH IN THE LOW DESERTS TO ALMOST 2 INCHES ON THE
COASTAL MTN SLOPES AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF THE MTNS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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