378
FXUS66 KSGX 270425
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
825 PM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRYING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ACCOMPANY THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH HOURLY RAIN
RATES GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. CLEARING CAN BE SEEN
VIA SATELLITE FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MALIBU, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COOL DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNING AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW YEAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (123 PM FRIDAY)
EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US, WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOCAL
THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS PATTERN OF FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES - ESPECIALLY THE
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN THE
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
OFFSHORE ISLANDS PRODUCES CONVECTION IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST, A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS GUSTING
TO 35-45 MPH IN AND BELOW THE MTN PASSES AND CANYONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY- WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (AS MUCH AS 5-6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGES) WEST OF THE MTNS.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST, DISPLACING
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRAWING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MEAN FLOW OVER SOCAL. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BUT AN INCREASING NUMBER
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOCAL BETWEEN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
270430Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...-SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING INTERMITTENT MFVR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VIS. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL EXIT
THE COASTAL BASIN BY 08Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA, THEREAFTER. SCT
CLOUDS BASED 3000-6000 FT MSL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WITH
ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE COASTLINE 15-19Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS BASED 4000-6000 FT
MSL ALONG WITH RA IN THE MTNS AND SCT -SHRA IN THE DESERTS WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THROUGH 10Z SAT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG
COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 18Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURNING WESTERLY 06-
09Z AND GUSTING 25-35 KNOTS AND DOWNWIND OF DESERT SLOPES THROUGH
18Z. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
WESTERLY SWELL (250-270 DEGREES) WILL LEAD TO SURF HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHEST SURF IS
EXPECTED FOR WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
UPDATE...APR
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...KW
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