123
FXUS66 KSGX 271013
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
213 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GIVE WAY
TO A DRYING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT WARMING
WILL ACCOMPANY THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER FOR US SINCE CHRISTMAS EVE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
REGION, WITH MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT DOES. FURTHER CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ALL PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE COASTAL AND INLAND
AREAS, TO THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, 50S FOR THE HIGH
DESERTS, AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
BECOMING PREDOMINANT GOING INTO SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY GETTING UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER CONFINED OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT,
WITH ONLY PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR SOME OF THE WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS, AND 30S FOR THE
INLAND AREAS FOR TONIGHT.
THE POSITIVELY-TILTED MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BECOME CUT
OFF AND POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER HERE
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, RIGHT AROUND NEW YEARS
DAY, AS IT TRANSITIONS BACK UP TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS THE WELL-PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXPAND EASTWARD, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW FOR WEAK SANTA ANA CONDITIONS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WINDS
AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN RECENT RAINFALLS WITH AN ABUNDANCE IN ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE OF ANY
CONCERN. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE BACK
UP TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ADVANCING
TOWARDS THE REGION ABSORBS THE ENERGY OF THIS U/L LOW AND BRINGS IT
BACK TOWARDS SOCAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN, ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL WARMUP OCCURRING EARLIER IN
THE WEEK SWITCHING BACK TO A GRADUAL COOLDOWN GOING INTO THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE, IN COMBINATION
WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN AS THE "KICKER" MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME MORE DECENT RAINFALLS AGAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SETS UP
AND WHERE THE U/L ENDS UP TRACKING. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE EXACTLY THE
U/L LOW WILL MOVE, HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REFLECT A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SOCAL RIGHT AROUND THE TURN OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION
270930Z...CLOUDS BASED 4000-7000FT MSL AND -RA ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND HAVE ALREADY CLEARED ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. FURTHER
CLEARING THROUGH 12Z FOR SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES, WITH
PATCHY GROUND FG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 500-900FT
MSL DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FG/LOW CLOUDS BEING IN THE VALLEYS, INLAND
EMPIRE, AND FOOTHILLS. VIS DOWN TO 2-6SM IN BR AND HZ, LOCALLY DOWN
TO 0SM, CLEARING BY 18-20Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR WITH SOME LINGERING 3000-
5000FT MSL CLOUDS ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WINDS PICK UP AFTER 15Z SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30KTS FOR
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS. HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
STRONG WINDS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BEACHES
WESTERLY SWELL (250-270 DEGREES) PRODUCING SURF HEIGHTS 5 TO 8 FEET
THIS MORNING AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SURF WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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