074
FXUS66 KSGX 271801
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1001 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. SLIGHT WARMING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS
THE CLOUDS MOVED EAST OVERNIGHT, RADIATION COOLING HAS ALLOWED
PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO FORM, MOSTLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEY LOW SPOTS. SCATTERED FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CONDITIONS ARE STABLE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
LIGHT PRECIP UNLIKELY TODAY. THE FOG WILL LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IN SPITE OF THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXCEPT IN THE LOW DESERTS WHERE THEY WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOCAL WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FORMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW GETS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MON AND TUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
WEST OF THE MTNS AND MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL RETURN FOR WED THROUGH
NEXT SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA, CAUSING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. FORECAST DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN WED AND NEXT SAT. THE TIMING IS ALSO IN QUESTION
BUT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR TOTALS OF 1"-1.5" IN THE
COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS, 1"-3" IN THE MTNS, 0.3"-0.6" IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND 0.15"-0.30" IN THE LOW DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8,000 FT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO
AROUND 6,500 FT ON SAT.
AVIATION
271630Z...RAIN HAS CLEARED THE AREA WITH LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG
AND A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1000-3000 FT MSL. VISIBILITIES IN THE
BR/HZ COULD GET DOWN TO 2-6SM, LOCALLY DOWN TO 0SM, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18-20Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR WITH SOME LINGERING 3000-5000FT MSL CLOUDS
ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS PICK UP AFTER
15Z SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30KTS FOR COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES WITH MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. STRONG WINDS
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BEACHES
WESTERLY SWELL (250-270 DEGREES) PRODUCING SURF HEIGHTS 5 TO 8 FEET
THIS MORNING AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SURF WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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