368
FXUS66 KSGX 280532
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
932 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY HAS SINCE CLEARED OUT. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND OFFSHORE, AND WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BELOW THE WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 35 MPH. IN THE WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS,
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. WINDS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN THIS, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS
ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS,
INLAND EMPIRE, SAN GORGONIO PASS, SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS, AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS SHOULD THIS FORECAST HOLD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOCAL WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FORMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW GETS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MON AND TUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
WEST OF THE MTNS AND MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL RETURN FOR WED THROUGH
NEXT SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA, CAUSING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. FORECAST DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN WED AND NEXT SAT. THE TIMING IS ALSO IN QUESTION
BUT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR TOTALS OF 1"-1.5" IN THE
COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS, 1"-3" IN THE MTNS, 0.3"-0.6" IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND 0.15"-0.30" IN THE LOW DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8,000 FT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO
AROUND 6,500 FT ON SAT.
AVIATION
280600Z...VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW-
SCT HIGH CIRRUS AOA 25,000FT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS
PICK UP AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30KTS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM 12-18Z, SPREADING
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AFTER 18Z. WHILE
GUSTS MAY NOT SURFACE AT TERMINALS LIKE KONT OR KSBD UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW CAJON PASS COULD
PRODUCE CROSSWINDS ON APPROACH/TAKEOFF WITHIN THE INLAND EMPIRE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KTS FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PASSES AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS
EXPECTED. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO
PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...MUNYAN
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