197
FXUS66 KSGX 071731
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
931 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY, STRONGEST FOR THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES INTO THE
DESERTS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY. AN
OFFSHORE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY FOR FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE VALLEYS.
IT WILL BE WARMER, BUT WITH COOL NIGHTS, THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SENDING US THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND OUT TONIGHT, SO CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A
NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET STREAM SWIFTLY PASSES
THROUGH SOCAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS INSIDE SLIDER WILL BE A
WIND PRODUCER AND NOT A PRECIP PRODUCER. ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE STRONG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, ESPECIALLY THE DESERT
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS SHOULD REACH 55-65 MPH IN THOSE
WINDIEST SPOTS. ON THURSDAY, THE FLOW TURNS ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE
BEHIND THE SLIDER. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
FOOTHILLS AND LOCALLY INTO PARTS OF THE VALLEYS WHERE GUSTS COULD
REACH 40-50 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. AND SO BEGINS A PROLONGED OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK AND MAYBE BEYOND. THE
INSIDE SLIDER WILL BRING COLD AIR AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE
INTERIOR WEST, GENERATING A PRETTY STEEP OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BUT BOTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS EACH DAY FOR SOME TIME. WITH COLD AIR
IN THE INTERIOR, THE WARMUP WILL BE MUTED UNTIL AN UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL HELP WARM
OUR AIR MASS, AND THE SANTA ANA EFFECT WILL ASSIST THE WARMING
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS WILL GET INTO THE 70S BY
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS COULD START TO REACH INTO THE 80S. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THESE
WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BOOST THE FIRE POTENTIAL, A
RELATIVELY HIGH VEGETATION MOISTURE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
WILL MITIGATE THAT THREAT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, TEMPS WILL DROP
EFFICIENTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FOR CHILLY STARTS TO
THOSE DAYS.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS, WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY STEEP 8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WITH AN 8-9 SECOND
PERIOD WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS STARTING TONIGHT, PEAKING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WANING THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND CONTAINS MORE
DETAILS. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MM/WESTERINK
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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