735
FXUS66 KSGX 080415
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
815 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO COME TO AN END. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY, STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME LOCATIONS, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SANTA ANA WINDS TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS, INLAND EMPIRE, SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, AND INLAND
ORANGE COUNTY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SPREAD
MORE MODERATE STRENGTH WINDS INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS, LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. PERIODS OF SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM DAYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CAN
BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLD NIGHTS IN THE
DESERTS AND ANY WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
UPDATE: ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, WHICH IS
NOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, AND THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND
PEAK BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TECATE DIVIDE, AND IMPACTING LOCATIONS
SUCH AS BOULEVARD AND LIVE OAKS SPRINGS WITH WIND GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY PEAKING OVER 50 MPH, AND EVEN STRONGER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 60 MPH FOR THE
OCOTILLO WELLS AREA. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING TOMORROW AND GOING INTO FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN THE SAME, WITH A BROAD RIDGE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND WITH A LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WINDS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKING SHAPE ON
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MITIGATE MARINE LAYER
INTRUSION FOR THE COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 137 PM:
KEY POINTS:
*GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREA DESERTS, THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS, AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
*MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY, INLAND EMPIRE, AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. MODERATE WINDS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
*COLD MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE DESERTS,
MOUNTAINS, AND WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS. COLDEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8, MOUNTAINS, AND
DESERTS. LOCALIZED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A FAST-MOVING INSIDE SLIDER TRACKING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES. WIND
GUSTS FOR THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 50-65 MPH,
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WESTERLY WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN
THE DESERTS PEAK GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
TURN NORTHERLY FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BRINGING ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE, FOOTHILLS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF INLAND ORANGE COUNTY. THERE
COULD BE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL DUE TO STRONG CROSS-WINDS BELOW THE CAJON
PASS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS THE
SATURATED SOIL MAY MAKE TREES MORE VULNERABLE TO UPROOTING
(ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS).
PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND
EMPIRE WILL BE 35-45 MPH, GUSTS MAY BE LOCALLY TO 50 MPH BELOW THE
CAJON PASS. GUSTS ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS OF 45-65 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER IN WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE CAJON PASS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE SANTA ANAS BECOMES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS WILL SPREAD MODERATE STRENGTH NORTHEAST TO EAST SANTA ANA WINDS
TO THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST IN DIRECTION, WINDS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN PLACES NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL
WEAKEN, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED. OVERALL GUSTS 35-55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASSES. THOSE MORE WIDESPREAD, MODERATE STRENGTH
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SANTA ANA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN WIND STRENGTH, THERE ARE INDICATIONS WINDS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S WIND FORECAST.
THANKFULLY, DUE TO ALL THE RAIN WE'VE RECEIVED IN DECEMBER, FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. FUEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOCALLY LOW 80S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS AND WIND SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE
30S AND LOW 40S, EVEN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH DESERT.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE COLDEST MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR LOCAL
DESERTS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABSENT FROM COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE DOMINATE
OFFSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION
080410Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 2000
FT MSL MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OCCASIONAL CIG IMPACTS AT KSAN
AND KCRQ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. LOW CLOUDS OBSCURING HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 7500-15,000FT AT TIMES.
WEST WINDS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AFTER
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS 25-40 KTS AND 40-55 KTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SLOPES AND PASSES WILL CREATE MOD/STG UDDFS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE OUTER WATERS AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WITH AN 8-9 SECOND
PERIOD (STEEP WAVES) WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT, PEAKING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WANING THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS BRIEFLY REACH 7 TO 9 FEET WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE COAST DURING
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS
MORE DETAILS. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORANGE
COUNTY INLAND AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM
OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
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