153
FXUS66 KSGX 100503
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
903 PM PST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, FOOTHILLS, AND INTO THE VALLEYS
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF WEAKER SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS SO CAL. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY, DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS TONIGHT, WHILE AREAS
MORE PRONE TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR
PEAK AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA BY
SUNDAY, WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUING OVER SO CAL. AT
THE SURFACE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH BELOW THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE CUYAMACA MOUNTAINS.
THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WERE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING, VALID
THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY. REMAINING WIND ADVISORIES AND THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 1
PM SUNDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALLOWING
WINDS TO WEAKEN. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. THE CW3E WEST-WRF MAINTAINS A 15-20% OF AT LEAST A
MODERATE STRENGTH EVENT TUESDAY-THURSDAY, AND A 60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A WEAK EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LONG AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW. DAYTIME RH DROPS INTO THE 10-20% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE 20-30% RANGE
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES CAPPED AT ONLY 35-40% IN
THE MOUNTAINS. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2-5 DEGREES F EACH DAY FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A VERY LONGWAVE RIDGE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WPC MODEL CLUSTERS SHOW
THE RIDGE LIKELY CENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THOUGH UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE) TO REACH ABOVE
80 DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT FRIDAY
AND BEYOND, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN UPPER LOW TO FORM NEAR
OR RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US, WHICH COULD AT THE MINIMUM
COOL OUR TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION
100400Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS GUSTING 35-50 KTS ALONG COASTAL SLOPES.
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY, INCLUDING VCTY KONT/KSNA, MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY HOURS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LLWS AND
MODERATE UP AND DOWNDRAFTS DOWNWIND OF COASTAL SLOPES (I.E. KONT,
KSNA, KSBD). WIND PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS STAYING MOSTLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN SLOPES, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS/WESTERINK
AVIATION/MARINE...STEWEY
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