572
FXUS66 KSGX 110412
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
812 PM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, FOOTHILLS, AND INTO THE VALLEYS
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF WEAKER SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: MILD SANTA ANA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH
THEN EACH DAY. AT THIS HOUR, THERE ARE STILL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50
MPH OCCURRING WITHIN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. SILL HILL REPORTED A GUST OF 67 MPH FOR THE PREVIOUS
OBSERVATION. EXPECT THAT THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FOR SOME OF THE
INLAND AREAS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND
THEREFORE THERE COULD SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE WITHIN SOME OF
THESE WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN FOR SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING THRU
AFTERNOON TOMORROW, ONCE THE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE
OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE HELPED TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS, SO NO MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THEN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 130 PM:
CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MODERATE EASTERLY
SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH WEST FACING SLOPES AND
PASSES. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED
EASTWARD AND THE GUSTS HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24
HOURS OVER THE SANTA ANA AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOOTHILLS.
GUSTS ARE NOW 40-55 MPH AROUND THE CAJON PASS AND MOSTLY BELOW 40
MPH THOUGH THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF US REMAINS STRONG,
ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE AS WELL AS STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. GUSTS 50-65 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAIN WESTERN SLOPES NEAR PEAKS AND PASSES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS REDUCE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER BUT REMAIN
STRONG WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, AS EASTERLY 700 MB WINDS REMAIN ROBUST. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SANTA ANA WINDS AFTER WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. THE CW3E WRF MAINTAINS WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AND EAST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SOCAL AND THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MODEST MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES TODAY AND
ARE EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WPC 500MB HEIGHT CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG
UPPER LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY NORTHWARD. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LINED UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST, SOCAL MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ENOUGH TO SEE
HEIGHTS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN UPPER
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE AND ENHANCE CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS,
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PEAK TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL OFF SLIGHTLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS LONG AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW. DAYTIME RH DROPS INTO THE 10-20% RANGE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY , WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES CAPPED AT ONLY 35-40%
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AS A RESULT
ALTHOUGH LIMITED AS THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH FROM RECENT
RAINS.
AVIATION
110330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY 30-45 KTS ALONG COASTAL
SLOPES WITH 25-40 KTS DOWNWIND OF THE CAJON/BANNING PASSES INTO THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND PARTS OF INLAND ORANGE COUNTY/EASTERN SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS. LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LLWS WITH
MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS DOWNWIND OF COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 18Z SUN.
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS BY MONDAY MORNING AND THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS STAYING MOSTLY CONFINED TO DESERT FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS 15-25
KTS.
MARINE
LOCALIZED EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS SPORADICALLY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO
PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...WESTERINK
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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