162
FXUS66 KSGX 061116
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
316 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING TO NEAR
THE WEST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLING,
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM MID-LEVEL LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, THERE HAS
YET TO BE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE OR NONE IS
EXPECTED. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 1500 FEET WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE COOLER, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS WITH THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AS MUCH AS
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR SOME LOCATION IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND ON THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
THE VALLEYS WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE GREATER COOLING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE 60S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HANDLING OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN STATES. AN
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INLAND INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SECOND THAT COULD MOVE TO THE
COAST OR MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST. CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CALIBRATED, DETERMINISTIC
NBM FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT
NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
061000Z....COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
HANGING OUT AROUND 800-1,500FT MSL AND HAVE MOVED INLAND IN SOME
AREAS AS FAR AS 20 MILES. DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS, INTERMITTENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. VIS HAS
STAYED ABOVE 6SM AT TAF SITES BUT COULD BE LESS IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS INTERSECT THE TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 18-
20Z, RETURNING AFTER 02Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
1,500- 2,500FT MSL.
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 11,000-15,000FT MSL ARE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25,000FT MSL EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH
DESERTS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
MARINE
A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS WILL
BRING SEAS OF 6-9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP,
ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO
THE SAN DIEGO BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) WILL BRING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AND THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-
LYING BEACH AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...VILLAFANE
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