838
FXUS66 KSGX 062028
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1228 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS. PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS, AND CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TEMPERATURES AT 12 PM WERE RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN NOON
YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY FOR THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY) REMAINS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOR
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL PEAK ON
SUNDAY AT 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS, MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE VALLEYS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AT TIMES.
THIS PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE TROUGH'S TRACK. ABOUT 35 PERCENT OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SOLUTIONS INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT, WITH
SIMILAR PERCENTAGES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNTS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVEL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ULTIMATE TRACK. NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE HAS SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE DESERTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE SPREAD IN WIND SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION...061745Z....COAST/VALLEYS
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT
OF THE INLAND AREAS, WITH VFR PREVAILING AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
MOVE INLAND UP TO 20 MILES WITH BASES 1500-2000FT MSL BEGINNING
AROUND 06Z SAT, RISING TO 2200-3000+FT MSL AFTER 09Z. VIS GENERALLY
SHOULD BE ABOVE 6SM, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND WHERE
CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN MAY SEE VIS BELOW 5SM AFTER 08Z. CLOUDS
RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 16Z SAT.
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15,000FT MSL CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 25,000FT MSL EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.
MARINE
A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS WILL
BRING SEAS OF 6-9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP,
ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO
THE SAN DIEGO BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. OTHERWISE,
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) WILL BRING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AND THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-
LYING BEACH AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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