650
FXUS66 KSGX 070012
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
412 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS. PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS, AND CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE
TEMPERATURES AT 12 PM WERE RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN NOON
YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY FOR THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY) REMAINS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOR
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL PEAK ON
SUNDAY AT 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS, MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE VALLEYS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AT TIMES.
THIS PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE TROUGH'S TRACK. ABOUT 35 PERCENT OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SOLUTIONS INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT, WITH
SIMILAR PERCENTAGES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNTS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVEL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ULTIMATE TRACK. NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE HAS SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE DESERTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE SPREAD IN WIND SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION...070000Z....COAST/VALLEYS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
CURRENTLY WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BKN LOW CLOUDS BASED 2000-2500 FT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS AND VALLEYS 03-06Z
SAT. CLOUDS EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE 06-09Z WITH
MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS (4-6SM) POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS SCATTER TO THE
COAST 14-17Z, BUT MAY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAY START AS EARLY AS 00Z SUN FOR COASTAL
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LOWER BASES AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED 8-10KFT OVER RIDGETOPS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KFT TONIGHT.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS WILL BRING SEAS OF 6-9
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP, ROUGH CONDITIONS
NEAR THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAN DIEGO
BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) WILL BRING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
WILL BE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AND THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-LYING BEACH AREAS
DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHER
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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