645
FXUS66 KSGX 070527 CCA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
927 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS. A PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS, PERIODS
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, AND CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS JUST
OVER THE COUNTY LINE IN LA COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
SEEMED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IT BUT NO LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DETECTED. CURRENTLY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOCAL FROM THE SOUTH
AND SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH THE GROUND AS MOST OF IT WILL EVAPORATE IN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST, REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOR WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS, MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE VALLEYS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AT TIMES.
THIS PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE TROUGH'S TRACK. ABOUT 35 PERCENT OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SOLUTIONS INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT, WITH
SIMILAR PERCENTAGES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNTS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVEL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ULTIMATE TRACK. NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE HAS SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE DESERTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE SPREAD IN WIND SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
070445Z....COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING CURRENTLY
WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF BKN CIGS WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT. CLOUDS
EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE 08-11Z SAT. LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT OF MOST LAND AREAS 13-16Z, BUT MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL
ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 18Z. THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAY START AS
EARLY AS 00Z SUN FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LOWER BASES
AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS PATCHY AND CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BASES CONTINUING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS WILL BRING SEAS OF 6-9
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP, ROUGH CONDITIONS
NEAR THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAN DIEGO
BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) WILL BRING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
WILL BE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AND THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-LYING BEACH AREAS
DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FURTHER
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO/PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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