822
FXUS66 KSGX 071748
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
948 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, AND A 15-35%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
AGAIN LATE NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE REGION.
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL REMAIN PATCHY THROUGH THE MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 250 MI SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY AND
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY, PRODUCING
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE PASSES AND FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER, DRY, AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 80S IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN, AND IN GENERAL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
MAKE IT INTO SO CAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OFF
THE COAST WITH THE ENERGY SPLITTING INTO A WAVE THAT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
WELL SOUTH AND INLAND ACROSS BAJA AROUND FRIDAY, TAKING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH IT. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL, AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES.
FOR THE 48 HRS FROM 4 AM TUE THROUGH 4 AM THU, THE NBM HAS AROUND
A 70% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST 0.01") FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD
IS ONLY 15-35%. CHANCES OF 0.25" OR MORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
RANGE FROM AROUND 20% IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO AROUND 40%
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY, AND AROUND 35-60% ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. FOR THE SECOND WAVE 4 AM THU THROUGH 4 AM FRI,
THE NBM HAS AROUND A 45% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD, AND A 15-20% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25".
THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS WITH THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000-5000 FT ON THE LOW END TO
6500-7000 FT ON THE HIGH END.
TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ON SATURDAY FOR
COOLER WEATHER AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE
EVENING.
AVIATION...071745Z....COAST/VALLEYS
CURRENTLY VFR AND SUNNY, WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SUN, BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP AFTER 06Z. THERE
MAY BRIEF PERIODS BETWEEN 00Z-08Z OF VERY LOW CLOUDS (BELOW 1000FT
MSL) WITH REDUCED VIS RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. AROUND A 15% OF A BRIEF CIG AT KSAN,
AROUND 10% FOR KCRQ. CLEAR, VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20,000FT.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS HAS RESULTED IN SEAS
OF 6-9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
TODAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP, ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR
THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAN DIEGO
BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS ARE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-LYING BEACH AREAS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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