881
FXUS66 KSGX 072035
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1235 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOLER, WINDIER, AND
WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TEMPERATURES AT NOON TODAY WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NOON YESTERDAY FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SUNDAY. INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THAT WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, LOCALLY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING, MAINLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE SPREAD THROUGH TIME WITH SOLUTIONS
SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DISTINCT DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.25" FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS; 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS;
AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THE HIGH DESERT. THE LOW DESERT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING IN THE COLDER DIRECTION. NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES HAVE
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET RESPECTIVELY FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE, BUT CHANCES OF SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON
THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE US WEST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
COOLER WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...071745Z....COAST/VALLEYS
CURRENTLY VFR AND SUNNY, WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SUN, BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP AFTER 06Z. THERE
MAY BRIEF PERIODS BETWEEN 00Z-08Z OF VERY LOW CLOUDS (BELOW 1000FT
MSL) WITH REDUCED VIS RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. AROUND A 15% OF A BRIEF CIG AT KSAN,
AROUND 10% FOR KCRQ. CLEAR, VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20,000FT.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS HAS RESULTED IN SEAS
OF 6-9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
TODAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP, ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR
THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAN DIEGO
BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(280 DEGREES) HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS ARE GREATEST AT WEST FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW-LYING BEACH AREAS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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