413
FXUS66 KSGX 080512
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOLER, WINDIER, AND
WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING,
WHERE THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH THIN
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE REST OF SOCAL. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO GRAZE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WARMER
WEATHER. THE CHANCES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH OVER 85
DEGREES ARE AROUND 30-50% ACROSS EAST COUNTY SAN DIEGO AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF ORANGE COUNTY (E.G. SANTEE, ANAHEIM). CHANCES IN
THE COACHELLA VALLEY INCREASE FOR THE EASTERN END OF THE VALLEY
(60-80%), NOTABLY INDIO TO MECCA. WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1235 PM SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO SUNDAY. INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, LOCALLY CLOSE TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ON MONDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, MAINTAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE SPREAD THROUGH TIME WITH SOLUTIONS
SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DISTINCT DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.25" FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS; 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS;
AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THE HIGH DESERT. THE LOW DESERT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING IN THE COLDER DIRECTION. NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES HAVE
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET RESPECTIVELY FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE, BUT CHANCES OF SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON
THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE US WEST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
COOLER WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
080600Z....VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWS FULLY CLEAR LOW/MID LEVELS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
AOA 20,000FT STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE WATER
FROM MOVING ASHORE.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL (280 DEGREES) AT 15-16 SECONDS HAS RESULTED IN SEAS
OF 6-9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR/AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
EARLIER TODAY. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED STEEP, ROUGH
CONDITIONS NEAR THE BAY ENTRANCES, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAN
DIEGO BAY/ZUNIGA SHOAL AREA AND OCEANSIDE HARBOR. THIS SWELL PEAKED
EARLIER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WANE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BEACHES
THE LONG-PERIOD (15-16 SECOND) SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST (280
DEGREES) WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 10 FEET ON WEST FACING BEACHES, HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WANING THIS EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
PST SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTAINS MORE INFORMATION.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...MUNYAN
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