831
FXUS66 KSGX 081803
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1003 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MINOR COOLING MONDAY,
THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS ON FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE LOCALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH BELOW
THE PASSES AND ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, BRINGING WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS
AROUND 12 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ACROSS THE INLAND
COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO LOWER A COUPLE DEGREES. MONDAY
WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A PATTERN
CHANGE IS IN STORE.
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING SO CAL. THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH, SO WHILE THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THE NBM HAS A 35-55% CHANCE OF 0.10" OR MORE FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS, A 50-70% CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, A
15-20% CHANCE OVER THE HIGH DESERTS, AND LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OVER
THE LOW DESERTS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35-45 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LONG WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE
COASTAL SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7500 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6000-6500 FT WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FT THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1".
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
081800Z....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER 19Z TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AFTER 02Z MON. LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AFTER 06Z, BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE
COAST.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BEACHES
SWELL AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED SURF IS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING,
WITH MOST SITES NOW REPORTING SURF BELOW 6 FEET. SURF WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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