056
FXUS66 KSGX 082007
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1207 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. INCREASED WINDS
AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE THE WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT NOON, TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING ANYWHERE FROM A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY TO UP TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NOON
YESTERDAY. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH
BELOW MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ON COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THOSE WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT MONDAY, BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE US WEST COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
IN THE RAIN BAND. LATEST FORECAST KEEPS TOTAL RAINFALL 0.25" OR LESS
FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND 0.30-0.50" FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.25"
FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING ARE HIGHEST IN ORANGE
COUNTY (30-40%) AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS (50-70%).
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.10" FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ARE 10-20% FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND 20-30% FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6000-6500 FT. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-3" OF SNOW
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TOTALS AT THE HIGHER END
OF THAT RANGE EXPECTED AT 7000+ FEET. NBM CHANCES OF SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO RAIN
AND SNOW, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
081800Z....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER 19Z TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AFTER 02Z MON. LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AFTER 06Z, BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE
COAST.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BEACHES
SWELL AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED SURF IS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING,
WITH MOST SITES NOW REPORTING SURF BELOW 6 FEET. SURF WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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