402
FXUS66 KSGX 100049
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
449 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BELOW AVERAGE AND NEAR AVERAGE. INCREASED WINDS
AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, AND A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE
AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 12 PM WERE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NOON YESTERDAY FOR THE COAST, VALLEYS, AND LOW
DESERTS, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN PREVAILING OVER THE
WEST COAST. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DEEPENING
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE MAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN BAND,
RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 0.10-0.20" PER HOUR, WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.40" PER HOUR.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A MORE DEFINED SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO TREND UP FOR SOME LOCATIONS. FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY AND INLAND EMPIRE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE 0.25" OR LESS. FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIELS
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE 0.30-0.50". THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.5" IS 20 TO 40
PERCENT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIELS. THE RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 6500-7000 FT. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-3" OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION, PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DIMINISH INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.10" FROM THURSDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE 10-20 PERCENT FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL WEATHER
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
100045Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT HAS
MOVED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS BASED 500-
1000 FT MSL WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND BEGIN
TO MOVE ASHORE AS EARLY AS 06Z TUE. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FILL INTO
MOST COASTAL AREAS UP TO 10-15 MILES INLAND AND RISE ABOVE 1000 FT
MSL BY 12Z. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED UNDER LOW CLOUDS AS
BASES RISE TO 2000-3000 FT MSL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL BASIN BY 03-06Z WED.
DESERTS/MOUNTAINS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS OF THE SOCAL
BIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z ON THE 11TH (WEDNESDAY).
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE
AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...KW
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