363
FXUS66 KSGX 100512
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE
WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, AND A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS. A COASTAL EDDY
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL AID IN LOW CLOUD
FORMATION. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS THE MARINE LAYER FIRST
REDEVELOPS, WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AND LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE MAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN BAND,
RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 0.10-0.20" PER HOUR, WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.40" PER HOUR.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A MORE DEFINED SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO TREND UP FOR SOME LOCATIONS. FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY AND INLAND EMPIRE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE 0.25" OR LESS. FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIELS
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE 0.30-0.50". THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.5" IS 20 TO 40
PERCENT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIELS. THE RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 6500-7000 FT. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-3" OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION, PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DIMINISH INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND BELOW PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.10" FROM THURSDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE 10-20 PERCENT FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS AND 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. WET AND COOL WEATHER
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
100500Z....COASTS/VALLEYS...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT
REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
BASED 500-1000 FT MSL OVER COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEGUN INTO COASTAL
SAN DIEGO COUNTY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FILL INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS UP
TO 10-15 MILES INLAND AND RISE ABOVE 1000 FT MSL BY 12Z. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED UNDER LOW CLOUDS AS BASES RISE TO 2000-
3000 FT MSL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS BASES CONTINUE TO
RISE TO WELL ABOVE 3000 FT BY EVENING. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY
FILL INTO THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN STARTING TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF RA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST STARTING AROUND
06Z WED.
DESERTS/MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT. WINDS PICK UP STARTING 21Z
TUE - 00Z WED ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH DESERT. WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KTS WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 55 KTS ALONG WIND PRONE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PASSES.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS OF THE SOCAL
BIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z ON THE 11TH (WEDNESDAY).
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE
AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...KW
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