477
FXUS66 KSGX 101428
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
628 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH. GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER WITH SLOW
WARMING WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL BRING COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH ON
THE LOWER DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 7000 TO
7500 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN FALL TO 6000 TO 6500 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, THERE
COULD BE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW, MOSTLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMER.
LONG TERM
SLOW WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR
AT LEAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME PRECIPITATION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
1010302....LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1600 FEET MS AND CONTINUE TO RISE, ABOVE
2000 FEET BY 17-19Z. VIS REDUCED 2-5SM INLAND INITIALLY AS THE
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND. CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN
AFTER 18Z AS BASES RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET MSL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 21Z ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT. WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KTS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 KTS ALONG WIND PRONE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
PASSES WILL PRODUCE MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF RIDGES ALONG WITH
PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM IN BLDU IN THE DESERT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY FILL THE COASTAL BASIN AFTER 00Z TO THE MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. A BAND OF -RA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 08-16Z
WEDNESDAY, WITH CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY LOWERED IN SHRA AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
MARINE.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH HAZARDOUS AS SOME SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS EXCEED 20 KNOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
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