599
FXUS66 KSGX 101807
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1007 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 MPH. GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER WITH SLOW
WARMING WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED 358 AM PST TUE FEB
10 2026...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE DESERT SLOPES OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO
65 MPH ON THE LOWER DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 7000 TO 7500 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THEN FALL TO 6000 TO 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, THERE COULD BE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW,
MOSTLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMER.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED 358 AM PST TUE FEB
10 2026...
SLOW WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
101800Z....A MIX OF CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TODAY. A LOW
BOTTOM LAYER 1500-2500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO TO 2000-3000 FT MSL,
BECOMING SCT THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS 10-18K FT
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS 1500-3000 FT MSL WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE COAST, MOVING TO COVER THE COASTAL BASIN BY 15Z
WED MORNING. A BAND OF -RA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 08-18Z WED,
FOLLOWED BY MORE SCT/ISO -SHRA THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CIGS/VIS
BRIEFLY LOWERED IN RA/SHRA AND AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER 21Z ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT. WINDS GUSTING 35-45
KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 KTS ALONG WIND PRONE MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND PASSES WILL PRODUCE MOD UP/DOWNDRAFTS IN LEE OF RIDGES ALONG
WITH PATCHY REDUCED VIS 3-5SM IN BLDU IN THE DESERT.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH HAZARDOUS AS SOME SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS EXCEED 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
BEACHES
INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SETS TO 7-8 FEET.
SURF PEAKS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THURSDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
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